The ninth edition of the Baltic Private M&A Deal Points Study shows that the Baltic M&A market has remained resilient despite continued macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. At the same time, the latest data points to several notable shifts in dealmaking: technology has regained its position as the most active sector, larger transactions are becoming more frequent, strategic buyers continue to dominate, and transaction processes are taking longer.
The study analyses 198 private M&A transactions completed between April 2024 and March 2026, covering transactions involving businesses operating in Estonia, Latvia and/or Lithuania with a value of at least EUR 1 million.
Technology returns to the top of the Baltic M&A market
Technology, including IT and telecommunications, accounted for 15% of the transactions reviewed, making it the most active sector in the latest survey. This compares with 12% in 2024 and 25% in 2022.
Manufacturing and industrial equipment and construction and real estate each represented 12% of transactions. Food industry and agriculture continued its gradual increase, reaching 9%, while energy and utilities fell from 23% in the previous study to 11% in the current period.
Larger transactions are becoming more visible
The lower mid-market remains the core of Baltic deal activity: 58% of transactions were valued below EUR 10 million. At the same time, the latest figures show a renewed increase in larger deals.
Transactions valued at EUR 100 million or more accounted for 6% of the sample, compared with 3% in 2024. Deals in the EUR 50–100 million range represented 5%, up from 4% in the previous study.
This combination – a stable base of smaller transactions alongside more high-value deals – is one of the notable developments in the 2026 results.
Strategic buyers remain the main force on the buy-side
Strategic investors accounted for 73% of buyers, up from 70% in 2024 and 46% in 2022. Financial and private equity buyers represented 17% of transactions.
Estonian buyers remained the most active acquirers among the Baltic states, while Swedish and UK investors were the most active foreign buyer groups in the analysed sample.
On the sell-side, the data reveals a different trend. Individuals and family-controlled sellers each accounted for 41% of transactions, compared with 29% for individuals and family-controlled sellers in 2024. The study identifies this as evidence of an increasing generational shift among Baltic business owners.
Deal timelines are getting longer
The latest study also highlights longer transaction processes. While 17% of transactions were completed within three months, 38% took six to 12 months and a further 14% lasted 12 months or more. The study identifies six to 12 months as the most common overall transaction timeframe.
The longer timelines are relevant particularly for transactions involving regulatory approvals, foreign direct investment screening, extensive due diligence or more complex transaction structures. The data also shows that FDI approval requirements continue to affect a growing share of transactions: 13% of the analysed transactions were subject to FDI approval, compared with 8% in 2024, with Latvian FDI approval accounting for a larger proportion of those cases than in the previous study.
Buyer protections continue to evolve
Several findings point towards a continued emphasis on buyer protection.
Specific indemnities were included in 62% of the analysed agreements, up from 58% in 2024. Tax and data protection matters were the most common subjects of specific indemnities. Security for the seller’s obligations was also used more frequently, appearing in 35% of transactions compared with 28% in the previous study.
At the same time, R&W insurance remains uncommon in the Baltic market, with insurance used in only 9% of the transactions analysed.
The use of full-disclosure warranties has also become more established, increasing to 66% of transactions, while disclosure letters were used in only 24%.
What the data means for Baltic dealmaking
The 2026 study shows a market that continues to adapt rather than contract. Technology has regained momentum, larger transactions are returning, strategic buyers remain active and a growing number of founder and family-owned businesses are reaching the market.
At the same time, execution requires more time and attention to regulatory matters, due diligence and allocation of transaction risk. With the average process lasting six to 12 months, early preparation can be an important factor in keeping transactions on track.
The Baltic Private M&A Deal Points Study 2026 was prepared under the auspices of the Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian Private Equity and Venture Capital Associations, with contributions from COBALT, Sorainen, Ellex, TEGOS, Walless, Eversheds Sutherland and Triniti.
For COBALT, the study provides a useful benchmark for understanding how contractual practice and transaction dynamics are developing across the Baltic market.
For more information, please contact the COBALT M&A team: Peeter Kutman (Estonia), Guntars Zīle (Latvia) or Dr Juozas Rimas (Lithuania).
